Although French philosopher Voltaire already recommended in the 18th century that rulers listen to the people to govern better, it was really in the 19th century in the United States that the first attempts at opinion polling appeared. Some newspapers began informally asking their readers for their opinions on various topics.

And it was in the U.S. again, in 1935, that the American Institute of Public Opinion was founded by journalist George H. Gallup. His goal was to poll American voters before the upcoming presidential election. He conducted surveys on a small sample of people he believed to be representative of American society. He correctly predicted the victory of Franklin D. Roosevelt.

The remarkable part of it? At the same time, a major publication of the era, the Literary Digest, predicted a win for Roosevelt’s opponent, Herbert Hoover. They had also conducted a survey—of wealthy readers who were not representative of an America still suffering from the Great Depression. They got it completely wrong.

This episode showed the importance of rigorous methodology in producing reliable results. And methodology continues to evolve, drawing on the technological advancements of the time.

At first—especially until the 1980s—opinion surveys were conducted mostly face-to-face, and occasionally by phone. You might have seen people in the street with clipboards and pencils stopping passersby to collect opinions, mostly on public policy topics. The reliability? Questionable. The topics were not always representative, notes were sometimes poorly recorded, and the margin for error was quite high.

Then came the era of the telephone survey. Many polls are still conducted this way today, but this method is often seen as intrusive or annoying. They are limited in duration and can’t display visuals like videos or images. They don’t allow for much reflection and only capture spontaneous answers—if the respondent even dares to express them, especially on sensitive topics like politics. In many countries today, phone surveys are heavily regulated: call days, hours, and frequency are all strictly controlled.

In the 2000s, online paid surveys took off. A big improvement, both for respondents and for the reliability and scientific rigor of results. No more unexpected telemarketing-style calls. Now, users sign up on dedicated platforms, choose when to participate, and respond via computer, smartphone, or tablet. They can take as many surveys as they want, anytime—24/7. Polling institutes use algorithms and even artificial intelligence to ensure representativeness and maximize accuracy. Results are collected, analysed, and reported using rigorous methodologies, minimizing human bias as much as possible.

Broadly speaking, we can categorize surveys into two types: those intended for the private sphere (consumers) and those for the public sphere (citizens), particularly in the political or societal domain.

Consumer research has evolved dramatically over time. These are now strategic tools that help gather customer feedback via satisfaction surveys, identify potential markets, and analyse brand perception. Thanks to new technologies, they’re becoming more interactive and engaging: for example, you might find yourself walking through a virtual store, selecting items for your cart. You can rate movie trailers or choose your preferred movie ending. Opinion surveys have become a central tool in marketing.

Political opinion surveys have evolved just as much in both quality and quantity. Local governments, city councils, and other public authorities frequently use them to evaluate policy impact—whether it’s a new bike lane, a roundabout, urban greening, or the installation of surveillance cameras.

And of course, before every major election, we measure voter sentiment. The influence of these polls is so significant that they are now tightly regulated in most countries to avoid swaying voter opinion too close to election day.

With a few notable misfires! Like in 2016, during Donald Trump’s first U.S. presidential election. Most polls had predicted a win for Hillary Clinton. That same year, during the Brexit referendum in the UK, polls suggested the “Leave” vote would lose. We all know what happened next.

As you can see, polls have become an integral part of our daily lives. In times of crisis or prosperity, all around the world, we seek to understand what citizens and consumers think. And no matter how technology evolves, your opinion will always be what matters most.

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